Brexit and other blusters

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The geopolitical world map is being reconfigured and it seems to be not too positive for Europe. Trump’s election goes far beyond the intention about the Americans recovering their factories or getting better terms in free-trade agreements. It is not only protectionism, but part of a change which could be radical.

An essential element for this changes must do with the role of the United States in the world. It is the great world military power; it also concentrates the largest and most important companies in the financial industry, energy, and those developing the greatest innovations in the productive environment. American manufacturing companies are no longer leaders because of their competition. In contrast, many of the American firms linked to Silicon Valley, from Amazon to Facebook, are becoming the leading players in the new economic context, and some others like Uber, Tesla or Airbnb, are becoming to be so. It will mean, if successful, that the US economic dominance will be strengthened in a new way, perhaps even more intense than in the past.

Ted Malloch, who is expected to be the next US Ambassador to the EU, has stated that the Euro has just 18 months left. He has said also that during 2017, decisive elections will take place in Europe, in France, Germany and the Netherlands, and the Europeans will decide whether they want to continue or not in the EU, and the end of the road will be inevitable. Of course, according to Malloch, the fact that the common European currency disappears and the EU breaks, it will not be a problem for these countries which decide to leave, because the US will be there to back them up. The bet has been made clear with the United Kingdom, which has been offered a bilateral treaty via express delivery if necessary, and it will be the way to reaffirm the UK position.

At the first meeting of President Trump with a foreign leader in the White House, British Prime Minister Theresa May, it will be measured if they both have more pragmatism or ideological affinity. The two conservative politicians share the enthusiasm for the Brexit and the negotiation of a bilateral trade agreement. “As we end our time in the EU, we have the opportunity to reaffirm our belief in a sovereign, global and self-confident UK, ready to build relationships with our old friends and new allies,” British PM said.

May seeks to become a privileged ally of Trump. But the British exit of the EU locates the so-call special relation between Washington and London in an uncertainty situation. So far, not everything is being an easy for May: The British Supreme Court has ruled that the instance which authorized the UK entry into the EU (1972), it is the only one which could authorize its departure. It is a broad-spectrum sentence. It opens a discussion of great interest: Most deputies were supporters of ´Remain´ and many of them even considered that Cameron had committed a serious political error in calling the referendum. It was, moreover, a transversal majority, of conservatives, labourist and liberals, and even the former PM was part of it. In the other hand, Trump praises the Brexit, but the British exit of the EU might mean for Washington the loss of the best defender of US interests in economy, security and espionage´matters, along the EU corridors.

Meanwhile, the head of Economic Affairs of the EU, Pierre Moscovici has quite reacted about Malloch´ statement:  “The Euro will not collapse, not in 18 months, not in 10 or 20 years. I do not think Malloch was well informed.” The Presidents of the Commission, the Council and the European Parliament have decided to keep a low profile in front of the new US administration and its more than inappropriate views on the future of the EU. Moscovici tried at first to be more neutral, insisting that “the US is a major EU partner, economic, strategic partner, an ally and friend, and will continue to be, but at the same time there is a new president with his own political choices and with a nationalist and protectionist´ tune.”

Questioned about a possible break-up of the Euro, the former French minister was much sharper. “I do not think it’s an informed judgment. The currency is a decisive factor of unity, it makes no sense to try to divide the Europeans, we need to strengthen the Eurozone, deepen it, and the European Commission will make its proposal in its next white book, when the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome.” In Brussels, the position of Trump irritates much, but they do not want to create more frictions with the new US administration. Before provoking a diplomatic incident, they prefer to let some time pass by, and see which the practical facts are going to be, and instead, go beyond rhetoric: “We will disappoint those who see us already dead. We should reflect on Mark Twain’s words about how the rumours of his death had been more than premature, ” Moscovici insisted.

Some days ago, it was again Pierre Moscovici who replied to the doomsday future painted by the new White House: “Having an Administration which is wishing the dismantling of Europe is simply impossible. I do not accept this view of things and I do not believe that these comment, which glorify the division of the Union, are the best for Euro-Atlantic relations.” It seems like those Trump’s advisers are linking the US policy success to the others´ failure. It would be a very poor vision of things. Trump is said to be against free-trade, but he might be only against free-trade when it benefits countries other than his own.

Although I must admit that this vision does not correspond only to the new US administration: It was also supported by the well-known Professor of Economics at the New York University, the American Paul Krugman, 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics, who considers himself very modern and liberal, and he is much praised by the American progressists, meaning the Democrats. They have more in common than a priori they seem. We must observe carefully to make sure if in Britain, as well as in Trump´s America, are these capable elites of carrying out the programs of the PEOPLE.

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